It's not your trading. It's something else entirely.

Ryan here...

My mate Lewis used to be brilliant at saving money.

Three weeks solid he'd be on it.

Packed lunch. Skipped the pub on Wednesdays.

Watched his account stack up.

Then Friday would come around.

"Just one drink after work."

Six hours later he'd done three weeks of savings in one night.

Every. Single. Time.

I used to think Lewis just had no willpower.

That he was terrible with money.

But I watched him do it for years, and then one day something clicked for me.

Three weeks of saving didn't prove Lewis was bad with money.

It proved he was perfectly capable of it.

The Friday night wasn't a money problem.

It was a "no rule for this specific moment" problem.

He'd never actually decided what he'd do when the Friday feeling hit.

So every week...

The Friday feeling just won.

Does that make sense?

Here's why I'm telling you this...

Those three green days on Betfair?

Not a fluke.

That's proof the approach works.

The session that wipes it out isn't a trading problem either.

It's a "no rule for this specific moment" problem.

What do you do the first time a position turns against you?

What do you do after two reds in a row?

What do you do when the market does something you just didn't expect?

Most traders have never actually decided.

Not in advance. Not when it's calm and they're thinking clearly.

They decide in the moment.

And in the moment...

The feeling always wins.

Hows this one land with ya? @Everyone

@Simon-Hardy-0 will tag @Adam for you

POTENTIAL QUALIFIERS — FRIDAY 10 APRIL 2026

16:30 | Slovenia Prva Liga
Primorje v Koper
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.95
FH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.95
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.95
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.44–2.5
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals odds 1.78–1.95

17:30 | Germany 2. Bundesliga
Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld
FH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.7
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.44–1.75
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 1.44–1.75
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.81–1.95

18:00 | Germany 3. Liga
Hoffenheim II v Schweinfurt
Draw | Draw odds 4.21–4.95
Away Win | Home Win odds 3.01–3.75
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.7
Lay Home Win | Home Win odds 3.01–3.75

19:00 | Hungary NB I
Ferencvaros v DVTK
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals odds 1.71–1.8
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.7
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.44–1.75
Home Win | Home Win odds 2.01–2.25
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 1.99–2.5
Lay Draw | Draw odds 4.01–4.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.71–1.8
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.81–1.95

19:00 | Netherlands Eredivisie
Twente v FC Volendam
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals odds 1.81–1.95
Draw | Draw odds 4.01–4.95
Home Win | Home Win odds 2.01–2.25
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 2.01–2.25
SH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
SH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.78–1.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.71–1.8

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Maastricht v Helmond
Draw | Draw odds 4.21–4.95
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.76–2
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 1.76–2
Lay Draw | Draw odds 3.76–4
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.71–1.8

19:00 | Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk v FC Emmen
Draw | Draw odds 4.21–4.95
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.76–2
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 1.76–2
Lay Draw | Draw odds 3.76–4
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.71–1.8

19:30 | Spain Segunda División
Ceuta v Real Sociedad B
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.44–2.5
SH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.78–1.95
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.78–1.95
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
FH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 1.44–1.98
Lay Draw | Draw odds 4.01–4.95
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77

19:45 | Italy Serie A
AS Roma v Pisa
SH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.81–1.95
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.71–1.8
Lay Draw | Draw odds 3.25–4.95
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77

20:00 | Spain La Liga
Real Madrid v Girona
BTTS Yes | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
Draw | Draw odds 3.25–4.95
FH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
Lay Away Win | Home Win odds 1.44–2.5

20:05 | France Ligue 1
Marseille v Metz
Draw | Draw odds 4.21–4.95
Lay Draw | Draw odds 3.51–3.75

20:45 | Portugal Primeira Liga
Famalicao v Moreirense
Home Win | Home Win odds 1.44–1.98
FH Over 0.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
Over 2.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.95
Over 3.5 Goals | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77
SH Over 1.5 | O2.5 Goals odds 1.6–1.77

Lay Under 1.5:

f215dbe2-5c0e-4053-82fb-cfeef7682d38-image.png

Cheers fella

Hi all update for March , like i have mentioned i am just paper trading loads of systems at the moment in the hope that i can find some profitable strategies from what i am collating data from. Here are the systems so far that look to have potential, all based on £10 stakes.

System 1 - Back home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
March 26- trades 22 , won 8 , lost 14 , s/rate 36.36% profit £34.44
Total results since august trades 125, won 49, lost 76 , s/rate 37.98% profit £302.23

System 2- Lay under 2.5 h1 goals ( 1.40 odds below)
March 26 - Trades 40, won 7, lost 33, s/rate 17.50%, profit £69.27
Total trades since January 26- Trades 114, Won 21, Lost 93, s/rate 18.42% profit £233.53

System 3 - Back 1-0 FT cs version q
March 26 - Trades 12, won 4 , lost 8 , s/rate 33.33% profit £151.28
Total Trades since February , trade 14, won 4 ,lost 10, s/rate 28.57% profit £131.28

System 4 - Back Draw at k/o Version W
March 26, Trades 30, won 5, lost 25, s/rate 16.66% profit £106.43
Total trades since Feb - Trades 45, won 9, lost 36, s/rate 20% profit £114.52

System 5- Back over 1.5 first half goals ( odds 2.0+) revised to not include h2h
Started system in March - Trades 13, won 6, lost 7 , s/rate 46.15% profit £27.51

System 6 - Back over 1.5 H2 goals odds 2.0+ check h2h
March 26- Trades 4, won 2, lost 2, s/rate 50% profit £0.77p
Total trades since January 26- Trades 29, won 16, lost 13, s/rate 55.17% profit £40.51

System 7 - Back draw for 1st half odds 2.0 +
Started in March - Trades 11, won 6, lost 5 , s/rate 54.54% profit £10.95

System 8 - Injury time goal version B( last 5 matches)
March 26- Trades 45, won 16, lost 29, s/rate 35.55% profit £313.36
Total trades since Feb26, Trades 87, won 27, lost 60, profit £362.76

System 9- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( Odds 3.0+)
March 26, Trades 80, won 26, lost 54, s/rate 32.50% profit £99.94
Trades since January 210, won 71, lost 139, s/rate 33.81% profit £408.30

System 10 - Back over 2.5 goals ft version B( 2.0+ odds check h2h)
March 26- trades 205, won 95, lost 110, s/rate 46.34% profit £53.75
Total trades since November 25, Trades 886, won 425, lost 461, s/r 47.97% profit £624.56

So plenty of potential in these systems and i ones that havn't been profitable on will tighten the filters and then show the results if they improve

@Adam Thanks Adam, will do...

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

Full house yesterday!

Today's AI LTDs:
Sangju Sangmu vs Gwangju FC 3.5
Sydney FC vs Melbourne City 3.7
Silkeborg vs Vejle 3.75
Roda vs Vitesse 4.2
Helmond vs Cambuur 4.3
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV 4.3
Jong AZ vs Maastricht 5.3

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

Ive traded the power play on 2 games in this T20 WC, both With the Black caps batting first....and the kiwis have not let me down!(although went on to lose v South Africa)Screenshot 2026-02-27 135837.png

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

I have a similar one, these are my settings:

1b96ccaa-04a5-45e3-a62c-7e32e6f665f0-image.png

I don't bother with the "Sport Specific" ones, and more often than not it trades out for profit after the 1st goal, provided its early enough.

@Adam Fantastic, thanks very much! 🙂

@Shanice-Jackson Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Martin Many thanks for your help so far. Appreciated.

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

Happy New Year!

Watched the videos — really good stuff. Had a 7-hour car journey so I smashed through the podcasts as well, some of them more than once.

I’ve been trading LTD and FHG using 2% of the bank and after just two trades this morning I’m already not far off doubling my original bankroll.

I’m big on stats and the software just makes everything feel smoother and easier to manage. I’m pretty strict with discipline too — some days one bet hit the target and that’s it, I was done for the day.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

@Adam thanks Adam ok will do