@Charman-Simon I love the goals, the boat is great! Which one you got your eye on?
@Alex-Rule said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@andrew-page smart thinking Batman - but the lower leagues should still be play on as normal?
Lower leagues will be fine i have adopted policy leaving alone Championship League 1 And League 2 have done for a while found other than prem or national leagues those are the worst performing leagues results wise
if they cost money drop them is my motto
BAN V SL.
LTD price is massive, yet last 3 games here between these two teams have all resulted in draws with some huge scores.
@Danny-Beal thanks, I have betangel, but if it is possible on bfbm I have a hope that I can somehow do it with betangel, thanks.
@Martin I'm really looking for a standard approach to calculating my stakes as a percentage of bank across various strategies (rather than based on a specific strategy). Generally I'm backing but some lay strats.
So for example, one strategy might have a 4% strike rate, odds range 20-100, average odds 38, longest losing run 133 and an ROI of 24%. I know I'll need to ride out long losing periods and my gut feel is I'd want at least a 200 point bank, probably more. If I plug the above into a basic Kelly calculator it gives me 1.41% as the 'Fraction of bankroll to wager' which equals a 70 point bank. That's way too low in my view.
2nd scenario - 24% strike rate, average odds 8, longest losing run 22 and an ROI of 37%. The basic Kelly calculator gives 13.14% as my stake %age (!) but my feel is this would work with a 100 point bank.
I've seen Kelly calculators with options to add multiples for a more cautious bank size (BFBM has a 'Divisor') and maybe I just need to use that but adjust the Divisor based on the average odds?
I've always used a level stakes approach and that's probably why I'm struggling with the percentage of bank that Kelly calculates. I also need to adjust to the percent of bank betting approach rather level stakes
Anyway, any thoughts from others with more experience using a percentage approach will be very welcome
Cheers
@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:
@John-Folan Final question I promise! Well, for 3 weeks anyway....off on holiday tomorrow🥳
When do you generally place your lay? If your horse is lining up at the back that would suggest quite close to the off... or the 10 minutes stated in the description...or somewhere in between? Is this where the dark art of scalping comes into play?😁
I start looking 10 minutes out then just go for it when I see a point I think it might drift from
@Stuart-Wallace I use BFBM because I can link it to the horse racing software which removes me from making an error. I also like that you can allocate banks for certain strategies so you can see which ones work for you and which ones don't. This year I'm devoted to testing strategies for a full year regardless so it's a good tracker.
There is nothing wrong with Fairbot and if I had the time to input my selections manually I would have continued.
@Andy-Donnelly No minimum and up to 11.00
The absolute worst game in the 0.5's was a Bosnian game in Sarajevo. All happened when I was only tracking but a hypothetical 10pt loss.
@Andy-Donnelly if it's consistent across the past couple of years too indicates more of a trend
@Martin Thanks for the reply,
At the moment I’ve calculated percentage of SHG per league, not profit, but i can easily calculate the profit for each league as well and compare both 50%, there doesn’t seem to be many below 50% which is a positive. I’ll be sure to check the odds to league to strike rate too. I’ll need to take a closer look at all the leagues with 1-2 selections and see what impact they are having overall, maybe seeing what it looks like with all removed and then again removing the poor performing ones. Tricky to know with almost no data.Well in total I have 758 selections. From sept 2023 I found that selections between within odds range 1.33-1.39 were most profitable so from that point I’ve only tested within that range, and have brought the strategy back in to profit. I have 385 selections recorded within that odds range and it’s those 385 that I’ve calculated the SHG percentage of SHG.
What a difference a slight change of tactics makes
March gave me...
64 games- 42 wins, 22 losses for a 66% strike rate. The second lowest strike rate since I started recording. But by for the biggest profit month with a 12 point gain. The bot is still set for a £1 back of any home team with odds over 1.1(and a low volume condition)
Biggest upset was the Western force beating the Reds in Super rugby. The Force were going off at 5.56.
Average odds taken 2.2
I know its not the end of the month btw! But am off to New Zealand on Wednesday for 3 weeks so all recording will cease until I get back...
So a steady week by the end, had a bit of a wobble on Thursday. Just had to walk away before I did anything stupid.
I am still down this month but hopefully be able to break even by the end.
4b3752d6-f170-40fc-a13a-0a9d70771f9e-image.png
@nigel-stone welcome it's great to have you here! if you get stuck just let me know
@Greg-Mitchell That's great Greg. Have got everything except the tipster bit right. Will try that. Thank you so much for getting back to me so quickly.
Evening , a rather belated update for February. Been busy with work and just got around to finally finishing off recording the data. Started with a trading bank for February at £308.81 with 1% liabilty stakes. Carried on with the two systems but been paper trading loads more hence the delay in recording all the results.
System 1 - INJURY TIME GOAL VERSION B
TRADES 68
WON 22
LOST 46
S/RATE 32.35%
PROFIT £111.53
System 2 - BACK THE DRAW AT K/O VERSION B ODDS 3.50+
TRADES 38
WON 11
LOST 27
S/RATE 28.95%
PROFIT £1.53
Not good on the back the draw , but still a small profit, the injury time goal system is doing really well and building my bank up nicely
The new balance is £421.87. Because of the delay in catching up with the results i have carried on using £3.08 stakes for March , which i shall carry on doing until the beginning of April. I will make sure i record the results for March before the start of April so i can using my new staking plan .
Of the other strategies i have been paper trading, several are looking promising so will update more at the end of the month if any meet my criteria of 3 straight profitable months of paper trading
@Vince-Kavanagh this is really interesting work, I've commented before on your ELO back away strategy, but a BTTS strategy is one really want to develop and use! I guess it goes back to my younger days of dropping into the local bookies on a Saturday morning and putting on a £2 goals galore coupon! Keep up the good work!
@alexander-hughes It's been a long time since I used it to be honest. I guess the BD version hasn't had the same development as the BF one, but surely a basic bot should be transferable
Can someone make the same bots for the betDaq bet angel by any chance please?
@Andrew-Hopkins For today, yes
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