Lay Under 1.5:

bd645bfe-a3bf-4ad0-9a59-ec72a67e4f78-image.png

Hi all.

Just joined.
Based in Bristol, UK.

Previous experience of matched betting and was reasonably successful.

Am experienced and again reasonably successful at stock trading and have worked hard on psychology and accepting losses.

Interested in building 1-3 trading strategies across football and potentially horse racing. Don't have a huge amount of time to watch races/games. Keen to grow knowledge of automation. Likely using Fairbot.

Now want to challenge myself on betfair trading.

@Anthony-Adams welcome! Best advice to start with is to do the training: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3761/all-members-start-here-here-s-your-super-trader-course/2?_=1766821010792

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.

Merry Christmas all!

@Adam thanks Adam ok will do

@Martin Thanks for the quick reply

@Mark-Burrows great work! To answer your questions re: high scoring leagues in my experience off the top of my head, it can vary

Netherlands, especially the second division
Bolivia
Belguim
Norway
Sweden
Australia
MLS
Denmark
China

@allan-poulsen Hi Allan, I've been running a pre match set & forget strategy here for under 2.5 goals which is delivering +22pts over 138 trades so far.

under 2.5.txt

@james-everard wowser! that late goal strategy has been immense

@allan-poulsen these are member strategies that have been shared with us over the years, not being tracked manually as it would be impossible to track (thousands of inplay data points would need to be tracked live per week manually), though when we have the next big software update (which isn't far off) it will be possible to run them through and find out.

@Adam said in TODAYS BUDGET AND NEW TAXES:

It seems horse racing won't be hit quite as hard, but only because the Horserace Betting Levy already exists:

A new rate of General Betting Duty will be introduced for general bets made remotely (for example online) from 1 April 2027. The remote rate of 25% will apply to all remote betting other than remote bets on UK horseracing which will remain unchanged, in line with land based betting, in recognition that operators contribute 10% towards the statutory Horserace Betting Levy, resulting in an existing de-facto 25% rate for bets on UK horse races

There will be indirect effects though - less sponsorship from bookies, less marketing, fewer bonuses etc.

Casinos are being hit the hardest:

The new duty rate of 40% will apply for accounting periods that begin on or after 1 April 2026 and will be chargeable on profits on remote gaming from that date onwards.

But don't worry, you can avoid remote betting by having a weekend away and betting at the venue instead. Then you just have to pay an extra 3p per mile for driving your EV there and a tourism tax on your Airbnb or hotel.

If you're lucky enough to get a win, make sure you immediately spend it and don't put it in your bank account, or you'll pay an extra 2% tax on any savings you have!

This government will probably tax us for oxygen intake in the next budget!

@Darran-Padley there's no definitive wrong or right way to trade or bet these games but the best way to find out is to forward test them, using small stakes - I'd stick to one approach for say a couple hundred results and see what you find. You can look to re-assess and adjust your approach after you have a fair idea of how it all works and whether or not it suits you (most important factor of all).

@Shannon-Townsend good idea to trade with no distractions, not surprised it's gone well doing that!

@Sam-roberts made a megathread a while back if you want to run the numbers on these: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-strategies-megathread/2

@Anthony-Daynes Perfect, haven't spoke with Mike in a long while I remember when he first started out in this world... god I've been around this world too long!

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Alex-Rendell said in Hi!:

@Alessandro-Imbrescia I personally think it matters less what you actually do in terms of staying in or trading out; the most important thing for me is staying consistent and adopting the same approach during every single trade.

priceless advice!

@Martin Great, thanks