It seems horse racing won't be hit quite as hard, but only because the Horserace Betting Levy already exists:

A new rate of General Betting Duty will be introduced for general bets made remotely (for example online) from 1 April 2027. The remote rate of 25% will apply to all remote betting other than remote bets on UK horseracing which will remain unchanged, in line with land based betting, in recognition that operators contribute 10% towards the statutory Horserace Betting Levy, resulting in an existing de-facto 25% rate for bets on UK horse races

There will be indirect effects though - less sponsorship from bookies, less marketing, fewer bonuses etc.

Casinos are being hit the hardest:

The new duty rate of 40% will apply for accounting periods that begin on or after 1 April 2026 and will be chargeable on profits on remote gaming from that date onwards.

But don't worry, you can avoid remote betting by having a weekend away and betting at the venue instead. Then you just have to pay an extra 3p per mile for driving your EV there and a tourism tax on your Airbnb or hotel.

If you're lucky enough to get a win, make sure you immediately spend it and don't put it in your bank account, or you'll pay an extra 2% tax on any savings you have!

@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:

Going for a SHG in the Sporting U19 vs Club Brugge U19 match. 0-0 at HT

I got 1.28. The odds should have been 1.06 / 1.07 according to Grok. The percentage chance of over 1.5 goals was 77%. From this we can work out the percentage of at least 1 goal score and 0 goals scored:

Over 1.5 goals = 77% → P(2 or more goals) = 0.77
This means:
P(0) + P(1) = 1 − 0.77 = 0.23 (23% chance of 0 or 1 goal combined)

Under the Poisson model, solve for the expected goals λ such that:
1 − e⁻λ (1 + λ) = 0.77
→ e⁻λ (1 + λ) = 0.23
Solving numerically gives:
λ ≈ 2.80

Now calculate the probability of zero goals:
P(0) = e⁻λ = e⁻²⋅⁸ ≈ 0.0608 → 6.08%

Therefore, probability of at least 1 goal:
100% − P(0) = 100% − 6.08% = 93.92%

Crap weekend. Lost about £100 on away lays due to Salzburg basically. Then around £150 on the overs which was for a few reasons.

ahahaha yes! @Darran-Padley

Relish is good though!

@Darran-Padley there's no definitive wrong or right way to trade or bet these games but the best way to find out is to forward test them, using small stakes - I'd stick to one approach for say a couple hundred results and see what you find. You can look to re-assess and adjust your approach after you have a fair idea of how it all works and whether or not it suits you (most important factor of all).

@Alessandro-Imbrescia said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:

@james-everard
Hi James,
thanks a lot for sharing your strategy with me, I really appreciate it. I’m going to test it straight away.

If i was you i would paper trade for a month just to record the results so you can build confidence in the strategy

@Shannon-Townsend good idea to trade with no distractions, not surprised it's gone well doing that!

@Sam-roberts made a megathread a while back if you want to run the numbers on these: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-strategies-megathread/2

@Anthony-Daynes Perfect, haven't spoke with Mike in a long while I remember when he first started out in this world... god I've been around this world too long!

@Alex-Rendell Thank you

@Raj-Kukadia Im not sure what you are asking me here buddy?

@Alex-Rendell said in Hi!:

@Alessandro-Imbrescia I personally think it matters less what you actually do in terms of staying in or trading out; the most important thing for me is staying consistent and adopting the same approach during every single trade.

priceless advice!

@Lee-Greener might be worth contacting BFBOT customer service and seeing what changed on the new version?

@Alessandro-Imbrescia they started out as that but were reversed as they fared better the other way around

@Martin Great, thanks

@Alex-Ionică to get 400 selections a month on a strategy can be difficult, I mean how many matches a day are likely to be value for any given strategy? Maybe 5-10? Then you would have to find them all! It's easier to do this around multiple strategies.

@Patrik-Mellqvist An excellent read.

@LATUNER-Patrick Thank you!

@Jaysen-John thanks for that update. When you say following, which specific strategy is it you are following? Then I can give some advice on it.

@Martin it's more of a love hate relationship lol. At the moment it's a love relationship. That could change very quickly though haha.