@james-everard Morning mate, this is effectively a long list that's gets generated every day - behind it are conditioning odds and implied odds that need to be met 5 mins pre-KO for it to be a bet. I haven't actually looked at the exact numbers but I'd say roughly 30-40% of all shortlisted potential bets qualify as an actual selection on the day.

The two weekends prior to this one were really rough (less than a 40% overall strike rate on a system that generates around 50% SR under normal conditions) but previous to that I'd had around 10 consecutive profitable weekends. It's a new dataset that I'm working with so I'm still trying to get a feel for it and what works best (looking at things such as odds movement throughout the day how home/away team form impacts results etc).

Bit of a vague answer I guess but there's a fair amount that's gone into this behind the scenes using AI over the last month or two and I feel like I'm on the road to being where I want to be.

Hope your betting/trading is going well!

@Alex-Rendell it's still not come up with finished product. I keep getting to limit of data analysis for the day🤦‍♂️

@Ryan I would have cashed out when the underdog scored for a very small loss and that would have meant a profitable day 🙂

My new manta is "protect you bank" which is helping with discipline.

@Chris-King very interested in your selection filters. So what angle do you trade using your filters. I can see that you are identifying a strong underdog. Are you looking to back the dog pre match and hope they make a fast start and win the 1st set?

@Simon-Hardy-0:

To find the higher ranked player, filter on:
Player -> Total -> Rank -> less than -> Total for opposition

The problem is you can't then do "price for this player" unfortunately. You can filter on the BF prices via Betfair -> Odds but only referencing specific selections.

If you have the "BF Prices" tab open in the main view, filter on the rank as above and then click each match in the filter results table, you should be able to narrow it down pretty quick.

Cheers fella

Hi all update for March , like i have mentioned i am just paper trading loads of systems at the moment in the hope that i can find some profitable strategies from what i am collating data from. Here are the systems so far that look to have potential, all based on £10 stakes.

System 1 - Back home at k/o odds 3.0-3.50
March 26- trades 22 , won 8 , lost 14 , s/rate 36.36% profit £34.44
Total results since august trades 125, won 49, lost 76 , s/rate 37.98% profit £302.23

System 2- Lay under 2.5 h1 goals ( 1.40 odds below)
March 26 - Trades 40, won 7, lost 33, s/rate 17.50%, profit £69.27
Total trades since January 26- Trades 114, Won 21, Lost 93, s/rate 18.42% profit £233.53

System 3 - Back 1-0 FT cs version q
March 26 - Trades 12, won 4 , lost 8 , s/rate 33.33% profit £151.28
Total Trades since February , trade 14, won 4 ,lost 10, s/rate 28.57% profit £131.28

System 4 - Back Draw at k/o Version W
March 26, Trades 30, won 5, lost 25, s/rate 16.66% profit £106.43
Total trades since Feb - Trades 45, won 9, lost 36, s/rate 20% profit £114.52

System 5- Back over 1.5 first half goals ( odds 2.0+) revised to not include h2h
Started system in March - Trades 13, won 6, lost 7 , s/rate 46.15% profit £27.51

System 6 - Back over 1.5 H2 goals odds 2.0+ check h2h
March 26- Trades 4, won 2, lost 2, s/rate 50% profit £0.77p
Total trades since January 26- Trades 29, won 16, lost 13, s/rate 55.17% profit £40.51

System 7 - Back draw for 1st half odds 2.0 +
Started in March - Trades 11, won 6, lost 5 , s/rate 54.54% profit £10.95

System 8 - Injury time goal version B( last 5 matches)
March 26- Trades 45, won 16, lost 29, s/rate 35.55% profit £313.36
Total trades since Feb26, Trades 87, won 27, lost 60, profit £362.76

System 9- BTTS AT HT IF 0-0 ( Odds 3.0+)
March 26, Trades 80, won 26, lost 54, s/rate 32.50% profit £99.94
Trades since January 210, won 71, lost 139, s/rate 33.81% profit £408.30

System 10 - Back over 2.5 goals ft version B( 2.0+ odds check h2h)
March 26- trades 205, won 95, lost 110, s/rate 46.34% profit £53.75
Total trades since November 25, Trades 886, won 425, lost 461, s/r 47.97% profit £624.56

So plenty of potential in these systems and i ones that havn't been profitable on will tighten the filters and then show the results if they improve

@Adam Thanks Adam, will do...

Not updated for a while but LTD still going in right direction just slow due to kids and life in general meaning i am busy when most trades are happening but the ones i catch seem to be generating small profit.

have just started (paper) trading half dobs on the horse racing and if this works then that would be amazing as i am buy my computer all day for these... we will see.

Full house yesterday!

Today's AI LTDs:
Sangju Sangmu vs Gwangju FC 3.5
Sydney FC vs Melbourne City 3.7
Silkeborg vs Vejle 3.75
Roda vs Vitesse 4.2
Helmond vs Cambuur 4.3
Den Bosch vs Jong PSV 4.3
Jong AZ vs Maastricht 5.3

@Lee-Greener No worries, we'll disable the non-scope version of that strategy rule in a future update (like we do with "horse position") as it's literally impossible to use to backtest an upcoming race!

Ive traded the power play on 2 games in this T20 WC, both With the Black caps batting first....and the kiwis have not let me down!(although went on to lose v South Africa)Screenshot 2026-02-27 135837.png

@Lukáš-Bíňovský what's the multigoal strategy?

I have a similar one, these are my settings:

1b96ccaa-04a5-45e3-a62c-7e32e6f665f0-image.png

I don't bother with the "Sport Specific" ones, and more often than not it trades out for profit after the 1st goal, provided its early enough.

@Adam Fantastic, thanks very much! 🙂

@Shanice-Jackson Here is the tracking sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hagmTEIVEKKxLKFkJ3y-Ap7O7DVPya7irK7HyAOCorI/edit?usp=drive_link

Make sure you click FILE > MAKE A COPY to have your own version.

@Martin Many thanks for your help so far. Appreciated.

@James-Menhenitt Think of xG less as "expected goals" and more like "expectation of a goal". It's basically the probability that a given shot made by the average player will result in a goal.

A value is given to each shot based on tons of factors, including distance and angle to the goal, type of shot (header, volley, etc), position of the keeper, the type of pass that led to the shot, etc. The xG values for each shot are then added together to give an xG value for the whole match.

The Overall > Average > xG in the software then takes the last 10 home matches for the home team and the same for the away team, and gives you the average xG figure per match over that match history.

Happy New Year!

Watched the videos — really good stuff. Had a 7-hour car journey so I smashed through the podcasts as well, some of them more than once.

I’ve been trading LTD and FHG using 2% of the bank and after just two trades this morning I’m already not far off doubling my original bankroll.

I’m big on stats and the software just makes everything feel smoother and easier to manage. I’m pretty strict with discipline too — some days one bet hit the target and that’s it, I was done for the day.

@Martin said in Starting Over:

football

Thanks Martin.

I am still paper trading this but it is throwing up so many ideas. I am amzed how much I have learnt from so few matches, approx 210.

I will update again when I start trading this on Betfair.