@Tony-Hastie said in John’s Horse Trading Resources:

@John-Folan Going back to the L2B for a moment...

Dreammaker suggests he will only enter the market if there is plenty of lay money below the current lay price. How much would you regard as plenty? Ive been looking at about £50 at each of the next 3 prices. Its a starting point I guess. Interested to see your take...

BTW I found the guy who created this strategy in a discord group I lurk in...
He posted it in may 2023. Its much the same as the one in your original post. 2 new rules though...

needs to be 6 runners minimum must have had at least 4 previous runs

I’m usually looking for about the same. Preferably more. A good sign a horse is expected to fail and people are looking for value and may have already drifted.

Makes sense I usually leave lower runner numbers alone as a matter of course. 4 previous runs is a nice form history to start with as well.

Doing ok with these? Shame they can’t be automated but I just find the stop loss is taken too quickly

@Everyone for anyone who looked at our site and may have been considering one of our prints.

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Just one for early tomorrow.

Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu) 5-0 under is 3.40 overs is 2.94
Rangers women was close to being a selection, odds a bit too low so will not be including it, worth tracking them though as they may be profitable in the long run.

Just one for early tomorrow.

Univ Catolica (Ecu) v Barcelona (Ecu) 1.42 lay under 0.5 3.40 ( not trading this one so will estimate over 1.5 odds to be 4.20 at 15 mins if 0-0)

@Tom-Williams We're releasing a "favourite price" setting for the betting rules this week or early next week which will allow you to do this. I'll publish this on the Changelog thread when its out.

@Tony-Hastie It's an impact value figure that tells you how much more or less winners each draw position produces, compared to what could be considered its fair share.

A value of 1.25 means there are 25% more winners than you might expect.

So for example if a course hypothetically had 4 stalls, you might expect an even 25% of wins in each stall if there was no bias. If one of the stalls gets more than 25% of the wins, its draw bias figure would be > 1.0.

It's narrowed down based on course, race type, and distance.

The goal came right before the 2nd bet matched so only a small profit of 0.06 points.

Total + 4.9 Points
May + 0.06 Points

@simon-topper sounds like you have really grabbed the discipline by the balls! Well done mate, looking forward to the next update

Anyone else quite want Kane to win a Champions League?

Interesting and informative video. Reminds me of why I'm striving for what I am.

@Simon-Bates Yes, have a look at the IMPORTDATA function. The formatting of the webpage will matter, but assuming it's in some kind of table, it should work OK.

@Adam has done amazing work on the Jockey and Trainer stats! So many options now to help make a good strategy

Cricket video:

A shortened April(from 20th) broke down to...
43 games- 27 wins, 16 losses for a 64% strike rate and a 3 point gain.

Average odds taken 2.43.

Roll on summer!

@Ricky-Simpson brilliant! their customer service is really good in my experience and worth contacting if unsure about things, they know far more than me about their product

Sun 28/04/2024 Seletions.
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@brendan-gillen we do pre-match xg on the software, if you go through the getting started pathway that will teach you how to use the software: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/category/10/new-members-start-here

You can get the live xG in play on bookie sites like Bet365 for free

Here is your first task before the lesson next week:

Comment your answers below!

@John-Folan nice will fire it up later

I do an almost identical strategy and selection process on WTA so thought I’d create my own filter using @Ryan advice here. Works well, thank you!

Player Matches Won >= 0
Category WTA-Singles
Scope Last 10 Matches
✅ Restrict To Same Surface Type

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IMG_1031.png

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In the second and third images image you can see I’ve gone through the list of qualifying selections and identified the favourites by checking the match odds first, then checking if they have an equal or lower amount of wins to the underdog and selected them to download. I do this by percentage so for the highlighted the match, for each players last 10 matches on the same surface type, the favourite has a 40% win rate and the underdog a 70% win rate. Nice.

You can then dive as deep as you like in to further match analysis. In the forth image you can see that on Breaks of Serve in the past 10 matches, the underdog has broken serve first 50% of the time and the favourite 40%.
For this strategy I am probably going to discard any matches where the underdog compares badly to the favourite on this statistic.