Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Way more straight forward on the lays today with 2 routine wins although I must confess yesterday scared me off for now.
The incredible statistic of going unbeaten when leading at HT continues. Now only one loss in 118 selections.
Conversely when losing at HT these really can go anywhere as it was 3 losses on the bounce yesterday.
Overs today very good until the end but still a little bit of profit.
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I've updated the main system page for lays and yesterday puts an interesting spin on things.
Profit down from over 30pts to 23 but with outlay of over 900 to get there.
Conversely the overs which I was struggling to continue monitoring with a few tweaks here and there have seemingly overtaken the lays.
By upping % required of goals scored and conceded to 65% for each team and by removing odds under 1.2 creates s/r of between 81-82% with ave odds around 1.3.
To 1pt level stakes this is still a little inferior to the lays coming in at around 18pts profit. However the outlay for this is just over 300pts so only 1/3 of that on team lays. When outlay tripled to act as a comparison against lays the profit is much more healthy at 56pts.
Of course stake/liability should never be as high on something with s/r of 80% as opposed to 90% but it's food for thought.
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As is always the case after such a bump in the road I can't quite bring myself to update things tonight. Save that for another masochistic day. In the meantime I'll just add selections. Also adding selections for overs.
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Miserable day. Guess these are expected from time to time.....
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What a mental game in Spain. A bugger ending up on the wrong side for sure but 0-2 down, then they get a red, then they score 2 quick goals to level things up......Then they take the lead fairly late in the game and I'm thinking it should be game over.
Then they concede quickly.
Then right at the death when odds for a draw have fallen through the floor they go and concede again to lose 3-4.
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For the 2nd successive day a crap start. Hoping to make it up again - loads more to come.
Last loser was another early season game in Japan but looking through the first 3 matches that came up with 100% wins in first 3 home games came in so still 3 wins to 1 loss there.
Most annoying bugbear is due to it starting at 6:00 am I had to put in a price before bed and I'm not sure it was the optimum.
Nevermind!
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Now 114 recorded selections where home team winning at HT and only 1 of those ended up losing.
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Sheet updated and next game about to start.
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After a large setback this morning the ship righted itself and but for a couple of bumps it was smooth sailing all the way.
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Lays updated for tomorrow. Loads on again!
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When I say 6 games in I mean 3 for home team and 3 for away
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In this latest endeavour I've been all about removing the matches that come up infrequently the minute I get a sniff I could be best served doing so.
I know small samples can mean very little but when I think early season form it's quite obvious it doesn't truly settle down for a while.
I started looking at all matches 6 games in indiscriminately until It became obvious that if the home team wasn't winning the majority of games early on it was a little bit russian roulette.
After last night I'm thinking that bar could be raised and. It doesn't lose many games but the games it does lose have been inconsistent.
It's a bitch that you learn these things through losing and so the real bank looks way worse than the system bank but I guess it can't be helped. Right now I'm kind of breaking even while the chart continues to creep up in the right direction.
So new rule to add which I've already added to sheet:
When either team has played less than 5 matches the home team must have won at least 80% of first few games.
As for AZ today well.........just can't legislate for that. 0-3 down @ HT to a team without a win away all season haha!!
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Was all going ok until Jong AZ had a first half to forget.
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Time to forget yesterday but also learn from it.
Sheet updated for today. I'm unsure on Dundalk due to odds and possibly even removing early season games (less than 10 combined matches) where home team has less than 100% win rate.
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Crap!! It was always going to be an 'interesting' day and 1 very late goal just about did it!
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Next game in Columbia starts under 15 mins
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Overnight games went to plan. Nothing until later tonight now. All on sheet.
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It's all about South America in the next 24hrs and specifically Columbia. Keeping fingers crossed it doesn't unravel here haha!
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@simon said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
@richard-latimer thanks Richard! Also noticed typo in my original post saying “our work” rather than “your work”! I obviously have contributed zero to this haha!!
haha, you've contributed just by commenting!
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Looking like a good end to the day. Next lay in Columbia starts midnight. Lay Junior.
Updating the rest.
