Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Decided to do away with the 9 matches played unless 100% overs leading up to it. I already did this with 7 & 8 to a positive effect and while I only have the 1 result on 9 it was a stinker and there is a potential for a few more.
I said a while back that I would exclude small numbers where the outcome was initially troubling And I did that. New rule added.
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With recent prices in the Netherlands 2nd league I'm not sure how I ever got 14 selections above 1.2!
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We are officially in no go area for English Championship and German Bundesliga 2 now. Also UAE although that's hardly ever an issue anyway on Betfair. Russia 1 & Eng 2 are also still on the caution list.
Morocco and Thailand 1 a piece both losers.
Turkey Super Lig, German Bundesliga & English National need caution also.
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Sheet updated but a little too tired and tipsy (i'll fall asleep) to pick the bones out of it. Got a Venezuelan game about to start. Stats look good but this is the first game in that league so caution required.
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Can't sift through it all now but that was a tough day. Thailand or only 9 games total in early season and less than 100% over 1.5?
Bundesliga 2 showing once more that goals don't come easily there.
Denmark 1st Division with a first loss.
Austria Erste also with first loss and a 0-0 to boot.
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So a few things have changed with today. Denmark Superliga definitely edging towards being one of the better performers. After a start of win follows win follows win Swiss Super League has now suffered 2 unexpected losses on the bounce and hovers barely above break even.
Swiss Challenge league continues to perform well.
Sheet already updated with overs for tomorrow:
In the afternoon there's Thailand still in the early stages but 9 games down for this one. It's 89% overs already but I'm not decided totally. I have been saying for matches of 7 or 8 then 100% is needed. Of course this is the first of 9 so a decision has to be made. H2H mostly favours goals but a couple of recent(ish) unders are of concern.
Then it's Braila in Romania. Maybe I'll look at what the action seems like as H2H not really favourable and Romania has been up and down in liga II.
After that leagues are mainly ones in profit but then Braunschweig in Bundesliga 2 is another one I may leave.
As usual on Friday a billion overs in Dutch 2nd league beckon but odds probably mostly crazy low!
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Small loss again and 2nd successive loss from Swiss top tier.
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In fact as quickly as I've decided that I've decided I'm being too hasty haha!
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Removing the National League North and South as they never go inplay.
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4 on the card for tomorrow. Sheet updated.
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Just realised I may confuse people. when I say half point lossI mean half 1x stake so 5pts.
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Half point loss on the overs today with an unexpected 1-0 in Switzerland. More data for individual leagues. The one under came in at 2-1 FT.
I've spent most of the evening amending overs to a 10pt stake now that away lays have been dropped. It was only put at 3pts to act as a comparison for outlay which is no longer relevant. Alot of people use 10pt/£10 stakes so this seemed a good idea.
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Just the one under for tomorrow but oddly enough it looks like a busy day for the overs which is entirely unexpected.
Here's hoping for a big one!
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Unexpected 0-0 in Berwick game means nothing more than break even today on overs. Unders trial suffered a late loss with a 4th goal from Inter minutes before the end.
As a positive Germany Regionalliga Bayern moved closer to break even with 2 wins and same for EPL with the 1 win there. Belgium Jupiler League has recovered from a bumpy beginning to show a little profit.
On the negative Scottish League 2 had it's first loss and despite a promising start of 4 on the bounce now shows a small red.
It also was only an 80% over which have been so so and I'm looking at these daily for patterns.
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Just the one goal in Denmark so small loss for the overs. Both unders came in though so that makes for good reading.
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Makes no difference for Monday but I've added Italian Serie A to the list for potential unders given me concern with it as an overs league.
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3 overs for Monday starting at 01:00 overnight in Costa Rica. Only 2 Costa Rican selections thus far but both have been winners.
The other 2 are in Portugal Segunda and Denmark Superliga which have so far been big earners.
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Last 2 games could have been better, could have been worse. River Plate were 0-0 in the 75th but went on to score 2 in quick succession.
The Peruvian game went 1-0 early in the 2nd half on the other hand but a missed pen in the 82nd minute put paid to that one. Can't complain too much, there's been loads of pens converted in these recently.
It's still a profit on the day and take things to a record high.
Anybody looking at the sheet on a daily basis will note the absence of away lays from now. After what has been a monumental loss to the bank (around 66%). 14pts profit on 1000pts outlay is just not worth it when I have other things I can be doing.
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As for the football it's 9 matches in and only one loss on the overs which was in Turkey Super lig. That's now 10 wins and 4 losses in that league so it has to be viewed with caution going forward.
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Slowly starting to feel better. I know I said after drinking and eating a lot but in truth I went back over my drinks and it was maybe 6 all day. No this was squarely at the feet of the 'Buffalo Chicken Pizza' I had from Dominos. NEVER going back there again!
