Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Tomorrow looks busy but nothing until midday so I'll sort that when I wake.

Loads of new leagues starting but they'll be on the backburner until 4 matches played by each team just to get a bit of match fitness.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Great day, 4pts green as documented on the football thread.

First off Maastricht scored in FH window of opportunity so I laid under 1.5 FH goal 25th minute and also immediately laid the under 2.5 @ I think 3.1.

Got well over 80% s/r on 1.5 FHG after a goal between 15-22 mins in a game with home favourite of 2.2 or less assuming FH goal odds 1.24 or more (these are ave book prices)

Also almost 88% s/r from almost 50 selection of laying under 2.5 at that point as well.

Excelsior ALMOST got me but the odds of over 05 for H2 were 1.12 and I've stated in my guidelines 1.13+.

Roda I went for 75th minute goal after 2 quick goals up to 59th minute. These are also over 86% at the moment from a price which is usually close enough to be just over evens (certainly under 2.5).

Breda I went for an 80th minute goal after 2 quick goals no later than 59th and another no later than 67th (as above guidelines). Initial s/r so far 75% on this and odds often below evens even if by just a little bit like tonight (I got 1.98).

CORRECTION:

Only one goal scored after HT in Roda before I entered. Shouldn't actually have been a selection. Just glad it came through.

[Richard Latimer]

Great day, 4pts green as documented on the football thread.

First off Maastricht scored in FH window of opportunity so I laid under 1.5 FH goal 25th minute and also immediately laid the under 2.5 @ I think 3.1.

Got well over 80% s/r on 1.5 FHG after a goal between 15-22 mins in a game with home favourite of 2.2 or less assuming FH goal odds 1.24 or more (these are ave book prices)

Also almost 88% s/r from almost 50 selection of laying under 2.5 at that point as well.

Excelsior ALMOST got me but the odds of over 05 for H2 were 1.12 and I've stated in my guidelines 1.13+.

Roda I went for 75th minute goal after 2 quick goals up to 59th minute. These are also over 86% at the moment from a price which is usually close enough to be just over evens (certainly under 2.5).

Breda I went for an 80th minute goal after 2 quick goals no later than 59th and another no later than 67th (as above guidelines). Initial s/r so far 75% on this and odds often below evens even if by just a little bit like tonight (I got 1.98).

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest looking for the right fitting match scenarios:

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing tomorrow but I will be tracking a game in Qatar and one in Serbia:

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

Just the one 2nd FHG trade for a small loss. Luckily Raith never gave me an opening in the match scenarios I'm looking for as just noticed they are a promoted side who haven't played the minimum required 10 home games thus far.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

First game of today starting in 5. Guidelines of what I'm looking for below:

Will be leaving Montana as only played 9 matches at home in top league since being promoted.

[Richard Latimer]

First game of today starting in 5. Guidelines of what I'm looking for below:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I'm struggling for motivation to update tonight so I won't.

Here are tomorrow's fixtures of interest though:

2 successful trades today in Kuwait and Adanaspor with simple LCS on 70.

Was tempted to get on West Ham but held out as didn't quite fit.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm struggling for motivation to update tonight so I won't.

Here are tomorrow's fixtures of interest though:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Only a small loss but for a weekend, just literally almost nothing hit my parameters.

Yesterday 2 trades for a split and today 1 trade.

All flurrys of late goals and goals coming way too early in flurrys that never stopped.

Looking for alternative angles using the same filter and parameters and stumbled across this.

When a FH goal goes in between 14-22 there is so far, an 89% chance of the match going over 2.5 which is pretty good.

I'll certainly be keeping an eye on over 2.5 prices at this point.

I should clarify, this is for home faves of 2.2 or less as per current angle for 2nd FHG.

[Richard Latimer]

Only a small loss but for a weekend, just literally almost nothing hit my parameters.

Yesterday 2 trades for a split and today 1 trade.

All flurrys of late goals and goals coming way too early in flurrys that never stopped.

[Richard Latimer]

Playing a real long game here.

Karagumruk drew a blank despite 9 minutes of injury time so that's annoying.

So far it's the only trade today based on existing parametres. I'm guessing howeveer that things will evolve the more selectionsI get and certain things will be loosened for a slightly lower but all the more realistic sustainable s/r

Take Brondby today who broke the deadlock on 71mins. At the moment I'm only looking for strong home faves under 1.5 and home dogs 3.5 or more when the score is 0-0. Between 3-3.5 so far brings s/r down and has no real benefit. However a few more like Brondby and perhaps that's evaluated.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest:

Yesterday was quiet in the end..

Only Molenbeek and Juve qualified for a 2nd half goal 50/50 split. Juve was a 3-1 entry after 2nd goal had gone in on 60 from the penalty spot.

2nd half 2 goal by 60 is only a 50/50 split on 4 selections now where as before that much better. Will be wary for now. Small data samples but I'm following them where they lead.

[Richard Latimer]

With Brentford off that's 13 potentials now. Still plenty but not too many.

[Richard Latimer]

Can get rid of Malaysia too as season just starting

[Richard Latimer]

For a start 9 of them have a home ave of 2.5 or more from which I will just be tracking for all of March. I've marked these out on my sheet now in case anyone isn't sure. Basicallly nothing until Midday in Ger though now.

[Richard Latimer]

Frightening number of potentials today but as always it will probably translate to around 3 or 4 actual trades haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Another thing I noticed after doing my updates is how Milan went behind 68th minute and up until that point my data had only gone as far as falling behind 67th in 0-1 strat. Just the one selection but now looking up to 68th minute.

Here are Fridays fixtures of interest:

Square boxed borders are the matches I'm tracking for a month to see where they go. All others will judged in terms of what happens in the match as per my guidelines and I will enter trades accordingly.

Small samples in each still but the whole is over 200 trades now so there seems quite a bit to go on.