Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

John Folan

The trick now is to get that strike rate up towards 90% and we are really in business. Good data set to work from tho

John Folan

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

John Folan

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

Ryan

@john-folan wow!!

John Folan

Ok using the LTO Overview tab 162 games were 0-0 at half time. Of those 133 had a second half goal giving a strike rate of 82.1%. Looking at the odds probability table laying the correct score at anything less than 5.50 is value. As most CS is around the 4.5 mark at half time these could potentially be a gold mine.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer Interesting that, that's a lot of games being 0-0 @ HT, I wonder how many went Over 0.5 goals instead of the 1.5 because a high number went over 1.5 I would imagine an even higher number went over 0.5 giving a great way of trading these - with pretty much a set and forget as well!

Might have hit on something beautiful here.

Ryan

@richard-latimer Interesting that, that's a lot of games being 0-0 @ HT, I wonder how many went Over 0.5 goals instead of the 1.5 because a high number went over 1.5 I would imagine an even higher number went over 0.5 giving a great way of trading these - with pretty much a set and forget as well!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

Swings and roundabouts I guess. I'm not really looking at it from a trading angle as such due to time constraints but I'm sure there would be value. Not only in average goal times but by looking at teams individually. Paraguay and Ecuador don't always seem to score early but the over 1.5 is superb for the odds you get even from kickoff.

In terms of what I can look at quite quickly there have been 162 selections from my filtered list which reached half time @ 0-0.

Of these 95 went over 1.5 and 67 stayed under. 58%. Average odds for this I'd imagine to be close to evens. Not accounting for commission and fluctuations in those odds it would be 280pts to 10pt level stakes.

Less outlay but less profit.

Obviously if you went for the 30 minute mark I'm sure the s/r would increase significantly and odds drop a little although by how much I couldn't say.

More than happy for anyone to take the data and do a little investigation there.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Nice breakdown Tom. Maybe the swings are just pure variance?

The other thing to note is if the small amount of data isn't enough to judge leagues then how could anyone be so confident of an initial 250 results regardless of well they fared?! I have seen many such runs from initial ideas which all crashed and burned. What I've not done before now is to simply accept that some leagues are best staying away from period whether it be for odds which are artificially skinny or s/r's which just don't seem to fall the way stats suggest they should.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

Swings and roundabouts I guess. I'm not really looking at it from a trading angle as such due to time constraints but I'm sure there would be value. Not only in average goal times but by looking at teams individually. Paraguay and Ecuador don't always seem to score early but the over 1.5 is superb for the odds you get even from kickoff.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Nothing changed but results. I agree, they started off like a train but that train was derailed and I had to look at ways of getting it on the track again.

Not sure why you are not looking at the filtered sheet as that is steady up, up and up some more. Yield of almost 8%.

I've really not changed what goes on that sheet much in ages.

The overall sheet is there to act as a reference point for the GROSS data I collect.

Richard Latimer

I'm away next few days so having to post now. Don't think it's going to be too busy in any case.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

Nice idea that Ryan

John Folan

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Nice breakdown Tom. Maybe the swings are just pure variance?

Ryan

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

? Offline

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Richard Latimer

Yes but also looking at FH goals.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?

Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?

Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

This is the thing: I didn't change a single thing until results dictated I needed to. The initial results were great but without further tinkering they didn't stay that way. However changes have been minimal I think I started off needing 60% goals scored/conceded by both teams etc but quickly realised a better base line could be found at 65%+.

Initially all playoff games were used until I started to see that 2nd legs were more conducive to goals than the first leg were both teams could often play with caution. That makes sense to me. Also in a playoff final there would be a level of caution.

Other than that there have been surprisingly few changes.

I think I raised minimum odds to 1.2 and decided if it traded at that before kick-off for the amount of my bet I would leave it to go inplay.

Everything else has been dictated by leagues and there has been a MASSIVE difference. Leagues in deficit are only around 1/3 of the total but amount for a massive 450pts. Taking just the leagues in profit is well over 600pts profit.

Of course as I've mentioned before I know this is not possible to follow so by filtering these performing worst there have been hardly any recent changes to the filtered table (certainly none done on a daily/weekly basis) and I've hit a balance of almost 500pts profit so far.

Silly season had little to no effect.

No idea mate. I'm collecting all this as I go haha!

I also set minimum number of games combined to 7 and stated if under 10 I wanted 100% over 1.5 rather than 80%+. These are just early season condition which have had no effect to recent results.

I know others steer well clear of certain leagues and I always wanted to believe the stats were all but it really doesn't seem as if they are. Numbers are small per league at the moment but if you combine the poorly performing leagues then they are growing in number.

At what point does it mean something? 300 bets, 500 bets, 1000 bets? In the meantime my bank would be suffering hugely if I was to use these or at the very best going nowhere. Since ruling some leagues out I have at least been breaking even for some time now as opposed to constantly losing.

Makes sense. So are you just concentrating on over 1.5 now?

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?

Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?

Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

This is the thing: I didn't change a single thing until results dictated I needed to. The initial results were great but without further tinkering they didn't stay that way. However changes have been minimal I think I started off needing 60% goals scored/conceded by both teams etc but quickly realised a better base line could be found at 65%+.

Initially all playoff games were used until I started to see that 2nd legs were more conducive to goals than the first leg were both teams could often play with caution. That makes sense to me. Also in a playoff final there would be a level of caution.

Other than that there have been surprisingly few changes.

I think I raised minimum odds to 1.2 and decided if it traded at that before kick-off for the amount of my bet I would leave it to go inplay.

Everything else has been dictated by leagues and there has been a MASSIVE difference. Leagues in deficit are only around 1/3 of the total but amount for a massive 450pts. Taking just the leagues in profit is well over 600pts profit.

Of course as I've mentioned before I know this is not possible to follow so by filtering these performing worst there have been hardly any recent changes to the filtered table (certainly none done on a daily/weekly basis) and I've hit a balance of almost 500pts profit so far.

Silly season had little to no effect.

No idea mate. I'm collecting all this as I go haha!

I also set minimum number of games combined to 7 and stated if under 10 I wanted 100% over 1.5 rather than 80%+. These are just early season condition which have had no effect to recent results.

I know others steer well clear of certain leagues and I always wanted to believe the stats were all but it really doesn't seem as if they are. Numbers are small per league at the moment but if you combine the poorly performing leagues then they are growing in number.

At what point does it mean something? 300 bets, 500 bets, 1000 bets? In the meantime my bank would be suffering hugely if I was to use these or at the very best going nowhere. Since ruling some leagues out I have at least been breaking even for some time now as opposed to constantly losing.

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer had a good look through your spreadsheet last week, some absolutely brilliant work going on there!

Thanks @Martin-Futter