The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Richard Latimer

@john-folan the ratcheting is another thing I'm doing. Will require big balls at 30% down to start the day.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

I would also say it's a way of optimising your system. You can take on higher odds and you also reward yourself more for lower odds lays.

I agree. Like anything it’s not perfect but it works and I’ve gone through a lot of her thread now to watch it ‘live’ so as to speak.

Ratcheting your stakes helps too(not decreasing after a bad day).

I would love to work out that selection process though….

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

I would also say it's a way of optimising your system. You can take on higher odds and you also reward yourself more for lower odds lays.

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

As long as you think, I need the following s/r for each range to break even at the highest level.

72% up to 3.5
87% up to 7.4
92% up to 11.0

Of course in reality you will have loads in the middle ground so wouldn't need anywhere close.

John Folan

@dan-mackinnon bang on

Dan MacKinnon

@richard-latimer OK so the SR is the same, but it's more about managing liability. You're not saying a higher odds trade has 40% chance of what a lower odds one does, but in the event it went against you you're only exposed for a lower amount.

So really it's a type of risk management.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

It simply allows you to take higher odds that very rarely lose but if they did lose at level stakes would cripple you.

Richard Latimer with the most simple explanation ever.

These truly are strange times we live in.

Bang on though. What I’m more interested in is finding a high strike rate laying system for the horses so we can replicate it. I think her system has something to do with DSLR(days since last run) but there is other stuff going on there.

But you boys are right. This can be adapted to football as Richard has shown .

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

It simply allows you to take higher odds that very rarely lose but if they did lose at level stakes would cripple you.

Richard Latimer

@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan I've been trying to get my head around this. So is it basically, mixed staking based on odds and a high SR. Then readjusting the stake every day.

This might be a daft question but how do you know the SR if each odds range is weighted differently?

It's what I'm doing with my football lays but I've adjusted my stake according to longest expected losing streak etc

Dan MacKinnon

@martin That's what I do and I find it the most straightforward method. In regards to the Maria system where odds below 3.5 are 1pt stake, 3.6-7.4 is 0.6pt stake and 7.5-11 is 0.4pt stake. If you used the straight win/ lose SR method wouldn't that throw off your results because the staking is different?

I might be overthinking this and getting it completely wrong, but if you set your stake based on odds, not all wins would be equal. Wouldn't it make more sense to do a SR for odds staked at 1pt, SR for odds staked at 0.6pts and another for 0.4pts?

Martin

@dan-mackinnon you could track it separately. What I do is one column excel ‘won?’ Another column ‘total’ then I put 1 or 0 in the win column if it wins, always out 1 in the total. I then do a sum of the total wins and divide it by the total to work out the strike rate.

Dan MacKinnon

@john-folan I've been trying to get my head around this. So is it basically, mixed staking based on odds and a high SR. Then readjusting the stake every day.

This might be a daft question but how do you know the SR if each odds range is weighted differently?

John Folan

This might actually be interesting to people. People bang on about Maria Staking a lot. Well after a little research I have found her original thread!!

http://web.archive.org/web/20080731055615/http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread18432.html

Ive read through a little. There is nothing on how she actually chose her selections which is a real shame. She has however posted the selections along with ongoing results and her full staking plan.

I’d love to be able to back fit these but sadly I don’t think the information needed would go back that far.

I think it proves though if you can get a strike rate equivalent to hers then you would be well away.

John Folan

Two potentials this evening. 3.5-9 odds range as usual

John Folan

Two points profit and a win yesterday. No selections today.

John Folan

Nothing matched. Here are todays

John Folan

Just the one today.

John Folan

Just outside the odds range yesterday and would have traded so annoying. Nothing today.

John Folan

One point lost. One selection today. It has been really poor for numbers this year,

3.5-9 as usual

John Folan

Three at Windsor today. 3.5-9 as per usual