The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Matthew-Harrison Yeh today is one of those days where I wish I hadn’t switched back to fixed staking.
Brutal to have 2x 15/1 losses in one day when history suggests you get one of those a month on average.
But hey ho it’s all about the long term right
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It’s 24 points down today so far
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They should be available here:
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4020/bet-angel-automation-thread
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Hi all,
Does anyone have automation files set up for the back the fav and lay beaten fav strategies on bet angel ? If so would you be able to share them on here ? Have tried to create them myself but they are not firing at times.
If this isn’t the correct thread then please let me know
Cheers
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@Jonathan-Jones yeah mine is down about 50% but that’s also because of aggressive staking. I know it recovers quickly enough so I’m not too concerned
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@Dan-MacKinnon May has been an absolute car crash. On the back of a great April this is a shocker. No doubt by the morning i will be over 50% in drawdown. To be fair thats not totally representative. I have lost almost 30 points from a mix of unmatched bets and that really annoying favourites issue where they swap places in the last few mins. May is so far a pretty crap negative month anyway but its the other problems that have really been the kicker.
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@Andy-Donnelly yeah, of course. It's happened before and it'll happen again.
I also wanted to get that horse pun in there!
Which reminds me. A horse walks into a bar....
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@Dan-MacKinnon Yeh same. To be fair the beaten fav strat was absolute flying for a good 3-4 weeks so probably due a dip this week. Hope it picks up again shortly..
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I've had an absolute 'mare these past couple of days with the horses (pun intended!)
But if being here has taught me anything, a good strategy isn't about avoiding all losers, a good strategy gets you back to square 1 asap.
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@Joseph-Henderson I think you mentioned before the concept of using say one year of data (say 2022) for the initial strategy creation and then testing it against 2023, it’s definitely helped me with a new strategy I’m working on that is looking very promising so far. So thanks for highlighting this as a method.
Want to give my new strategy a few more weeks of forward testing and then will post here.
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@Joseph-Henderson most of the member ones are from mid last year
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That is useful thanks. Think I need to spend some time digging into the data.
Do the strategies say anywhere what date they were created? I know when you upload one to the software it says the date you added it, but I am talking about when originally created so it’s clear what historical data it was presumably based on?
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@Joseph-Henderson
There is a concept of back fitting when using software like this. The software detects profitable patterns in the historical data. You then think thats wonderful and apply that to live betting. Sometimes the pattern is a genuine fundamental edge, sometimes its just a pattern that fits that particular range of data. The givaway that its the latter is that the pattern instantly fails when used on data not in its sample. Check the date created on back the fav and make up your own mind.The ways to avoid losing your shirt with that problem is to give it a few months after creation to see if the pattern holds before putting money on it or (when gernerating these yourself) dont use the full dataset to back test on. Develop your strategy on for example just 2022 data. When you are done then add 2023 and 2021 (there is some debate about how valid 2021 might be because of the hangover from covid but in any case i would prefer to see a parrter persist on recent rather than previous) and run the backtest again. If 2023 looks as good as the trained period (2022) then you very likely have a good one.
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Morning All. Just wondered if anyone had any advice about analysing historical data and when to consider stopping/starting to follow a strategy. For example, the Back The Fav at the off (v3) strategy looks great on the all time data, but seems to have pretty much flat lined since December 22. Or am I over thinking it and this is just down to variance? Any thoughts/views would be appreciated. Thanks
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yes it can and thats one of the things i was thinking about. It will always match at he touch point so for most cases i would still be getting the same price. Its strange how its really causing me problems this month in particular though. ~Will give it a go over the next week
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Three winners on the bounce for the pace backs yesterday. Nice to see these performing as the flat gets going.
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@Jonathan-Jones can fairbot ask for a worse price by a couple of ticks? If so do that and as long as you have Best Price Execution enabled in Betfair you should be matched everytime with one or two in a blue moon outside your odds range.
