BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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The Stygian gloom of Southampton has been a setback for most of us, I'm sure, but I just wanted to put things in perspective.
I've been watching Test cricket now for well over half a century, and I cannot remember another game where there has been so little rain yet hardly any play. Even in the smog of Delhi three years ago, India and Sri Lanka managed to get four decent innings played.
No one could realistically have foreseen this in mid-August on the south coast, and the great irony is that if this match had been played in Manchester we would probably be well on the way to a postiive result.
Occasionally these totally unexpected events will derail us, but the losses are a pin-p***k compared to the profits made over many years of trading.
There will be drawn games, of course there will, but normally the weather is much more predictable and in the vast majority of cases there are ample opportunities to trade out for a profit.
As cricket gets back into full swing - whenever that might be - there will be countless chances to make good these losses and make progress in building banks again.
And, as Luke and Martin have so rightly said, always be mindful of protecting your bank. I never risk more than a small percentage of my bank at any one time and am ready to get out very quickly if I think I've got it wrong.
In hindsight, I suppose we could have held fire until the latter stages of the game, but in reality I don't expect another match quite like this weather-wise in my lifetime - and more than I expect to see a team like Leicester win the Premier League!
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Lay England something clawed back .#nexttest
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Lights going to kill this, not the rain.
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@simji said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
Looking at met office for next two days most chance of rain is around 30%. Monday looks a right off. If play resume today does draw come back up. At 1.25 is it worth a small Lay at that price.
That’s a fair reading but I wouldn’t place a trade based on those hourly rain %, as I’ve noticed throughout the Test they are often outdated and inaccurate. Make sure you look at the actual weather radar for Southampton before doing anything.
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Current weather radar pointing towards no (or very little) play today.
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@jon-m yeah I do this, only keep 25% of my roll in Betfair at a time (unless some is tied up in long term outrights which I don't count as the 25%). I always ask the question, why do you need more than that in there?
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@jon-m Jon. That’s a cracking idea mate. Thank you for sharing, that really is a very good suggestion.
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What’s worked for me is setting up a separate bank account (Monzo) and keeping at least 95% of my bank in there. Ahead of any game I want to trade, I only have max 5% available in Betfair, to avoid any impulse stake. At the end of each month, I assess my trades and if I’ve been strict and stuck to my strategy (regardless of the wins/loses) i reward myself by spending 1% on a treat I wouldn’t otherwise do. It’s worked well by helping me to consistently grow my bank and avoid a massive loss. Hope this helps and whatever happens after a loss, I always feel better in the morning after time to reflect on it.
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@andrew-wooding Get consistent with your stakes,
FWIW, I lay approx 10% of my bank (MAX)
If you are going more than that, you are way too high, if you do this consistently over every test, you'll be in profit. 10 draws in a row would bust you.
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@luke-ridger Cheers Luke. It can happen and you don’t overstake for that reason. Lesson to be learned as I messed up, but thx to all the guys in here for their support and honest assessment
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Nobody should be beating themselves up, its unfortunate part of cricket. If you are staking correctly, you have to take these on the chin and play the longest of long games. To my knowledge, there was about 3 or 4 draws last year from approx 40 matches, it can happen.
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@james-woodroffe Cheers, I do appreciate that. Just difficult to see sometimes when you know next to nothing lol
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@matt-wood mate if you followed what somebody like Richard outlined and you laid at low odds you did nothing wrong. It’s just panned out to be one of those tests where now the weather has dictated terms.
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Left with 1.5pts red at the minute.
Listening to 5live apparently It’s also the litigation that umpires fear. If they don’t take action and someone gets conked they become liable for not taking reasonable action -
@andrew-wooding said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@matt-wood if you are satisfied you followed your rules then yes bud it’s one of those things. I can’t say that hence why I’m a tad annoyed with myself.
Yea I think my problem is I am so inexperienced with cricket that I am not sure I followed the rules. Cant see where I didnt though.
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@matt-wood if you are satisfied you followed your rules then yes bud it’s one of those things. I can’t say that hence why I’m a tad annoyed with myself.
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@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Cricket Trading Thread - Updated Thread:
@matt-wood it seems you did everything right mate and it’s just one of those things. The ICC are so stuck in their ways it’s moments like this where cricket doesn’t do itself any favours. They can play till 7:30pm but how are they gunna get back out there?
Is there any point waiting until tomorrow to see if the draw odds move out a little assuming there is play tomorrow?
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@matt-wood it seems you did everything right mate and it’s just one of those things. The ICC are so stuck in their ways it’s moments like this where cricket doesn’t do itself any favours. They can play till 7:30pm but how are they gunna get back out there?
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I dont think I overstaked at all, I had a limit of liability and stuck to it. I followed the rules of laying low. I am going to be let with relatively big red.
I dont know weather to think and look for what I did wrong or to accept I did the right things and this is just a losing trade.
