@Ged-Brown looks like you are starting to nail your strategies! This is great news well done!

I am a bit wound up today so won't be trading!

@Martin Yeah, will be ready for it next year.

Now i just need to focus on sticking to my strategy, not sure why i keep wanting to change it all the time? it already works.

@Martin

I'm a firm believer that each strategy should be judged on its own merits and the odd game might be the exception to the rule. But in general, as soon as positions are getting settled in leagues then the more spurious results appear. I think it needs a careful eye and an extra level of scrutiny for each game. As I said in the other thread, tonight's game that's just kicked off has 2 teams with something to play for so might be worth a trade.

The exclude Promoted/Relegated Teams in the software is an excellent tool for this.

@Fraser-cord

A portfolio of strategies is definitely the way to make this a profitable game

Not been very vocal over the last few weeks but that does not been I have not been testing things. So an update, I was waiting to see what the happened up to mid May with the lay at 3 automation - I knew pretty much that it was not going to go too well, even filtering results by type and distance. Essentially, it would not work as a set and forget, it is difficult to get three under 3 consistently enough to make it worth doing. So, this is going to be moth balled for now.

However, what I did spot is that in races where the favourite goes off over 3.5 it could be worth backing the 1st, 2nd and 3rd favourites. I have been testing this for a couple of weeks now with a 1 point back stake per runner and it does seem to be interesting enough to take a deeper look. Early indicators seem to say Flat / AW only and 7 to 11 furlongs are the best bets. You don’t get many per day and the minimum return is 0.5 points to a max 3 point loss, but the strike rate is pretty good so it is mitigating loss.

Now that I’ve knocked the lay at 3 on the head, I’ll set up a couple of test scenarios, one flat backing set and forget, the other a trading version, to green in running and see what happens. You gotta love science LOL.

I’m also testing a couple of other automations / strategies - in particular an in running one that if the 2nd favourite is below 1.8 then lay the first and second - once again not many a day but it is too early to tell what’s what - partial matching is a problem though so this may not be viable 😞 Only time and testing will tell me I guess.

Another one that lays the LTO Winner who is a course winner more than twice (distance winner either never or not), and a few variations, but that is just a paper trading affair at the moment pulling from the software only. It seems interesting, my filter gets an Adam score of 3.5 which is encouraging.

@ian-parry

I'd be interested in this for a strategy I'm working on right now. I've back tested over 4000 data points and now refined that to about 2200 data points with some filters.

I similarly was looking at a bank % staking plan rather than a flat stake and would be interested to see how your simulation tests my strategy.

I've done some excel testing with different formulas but would be great to have another rigorous test if you would be up for it?

Taff

0_1682361881899_0ff80076-e14f-4f3c-a5ca-da532b060443-image.png

Results from yesterday/today - can't be bothered typing them all out anymore!

Strike rate thus far is 64% so still a way to go to hit my long term strike rate of 78%. Still confident if we get up towards that S/R that this will be a profitable system, and generates a fair amount of picks so might compound up quite nicely.

Overall Profit & Loss FHG : -£14.25

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@martin thanks!

Can't get over your strike rate reading through these posts. I started a small bank to try to emulate this strategy and I couldn't have picked as many 0-0s if I tried 😂

@caroline-middlebrook said in Automated Racing Betting:

@john-folan said in Automated Racing Betting:

I’ve got a max drawdown calculator on my horse resources page(for excel). I normally use that and then times that by 3 to work out my bank.

3 times! You take a very conservative approach then.

That’s for each strategy. Some of the drawdown percentages are quite low to be fair

29/01/2023 12:30:00 Arminia Bielefeld Sandhausen
29/01/2023 14:00:00 Strasbourg Toulouse
29/01/2023 17:30:00 Waregem Club Brugge KV
29/01/2023 11:30:00 AC Milan Sassuolo
29/01/2023 12:30:00 Hamburger SV Braunschweig
29/01/2023 13:15:00 Young Boys Winterthur
29/01/2023 14:00:00 Legia Korona Kielce
29/01/2023 14:00:00 Juventus Monza
29/01/2023 15:15:00 Levante Burgos CF
29/01/2023 16:00:00 Fenerbahce Kasimpasa
29/01/2023 17:30:00 Albacete Lugo
29/01/2023 19:45:00 Paris SG Reims
29/01/2023 19:45:00 Napoli AS Roma
29/01/2023 20:00:00 Genk Seraing Utd
29/01/2023 11:15:00 Twente Feyenoord
29/01/2023 10:30:00 Istanbulspor AS Kayserispor
29/01/2023 16:00:00 Dundee Utd Celtic
29/01/2023 14:30:00 Schalke FC Koln

@jonathan-batten said in Jonathan's Journey:

BIG UPDATE

I just had a look on my betfair P & L and i have reached my first big milestone of a profitable week!!!

12.53 Pts Up to £1 Stakes.

So So Happy that things are going in the right direction. All done through placing my daily filter selections and some careful in play trading.

I couldn't have got here without this community and the software.

On to the next Goal and that profitable first month.

this is a great start mate, really promising!

@john-folan ...Yes opens up loads of windows of opportunity for more stats and evidence!! More research!!

@patrik-mellqvist ,,...you send so many mixed messages, but surely to work on your own strategy this is the best place to be, with all the resources at hand?
Each to their own but you really do blow hot and cold fella!

@steven-brown Welcome to the community and great to have you here, the best place to get started is the start here videos - have you been through them yet?

They are pretty much the step by step process I built to make anybody who follows it a super trader - I’ve made it super simple.

From there it literally gives you a plan which you can then work out what to do daily.

If you get stuck just ask matey.

@ryan Thank you. With the software and the automation I genuinely feel like it's cheating. Perhaps as its because I have been in digital marketing for a long time and like looking at data to come up with insights that I really like using the software and its depth. Really happy with what Adam has built as its an absolute game changer for a rookie like me.
Saying that if you guys ever want to have a chat about marketing let me know happy to help.

@matt-booker maybe trial fairbot for placing trades

@julian-drake-clarke Morning, I trade horse racing and football because there is a lot of events which means I can spread my risk and variance is reduced. I bet 1% of my bank roll as its quite big but used to bet 2-3% depending on confidence I had in the bet.
I've recently joined this group to socialise as sports trading can be a lonely sitting in a room all day existence so you should be aware of that. I'm still learning and trying to focus more on automated trading. I hope that helps.