@Jon-Kinnear said in Jon's FHG Strategy/Testing/Data collection:

National 12 over 1.5 fhg and just 1 under 0.5 fhg odds 3.60 under 2.80 for over
AC milan 8 over 1.5 fhg and just 1 under 0.5 fhg odds 3.40 for under 2.94 for over
Barnechea 3 over 1.5 fhg with 0 under 0.5 fhg odds 3.55 for under 2.84 for over
Universidad same as Barnechea 3-0 odds 3.45 for under 2.96 for over

National had 2 fhg, and the other 3 games all had 1 goal for scratch + 2.74 for yesterday

+5.84 points overall

6 wins
3 loses
4 scratch
1 postponed

nothing today

Scratch yesterday. Two potentials today

out the box way of picking selections at moment
teams fighting relegation or teams chasing promotion only

Over 1.5 selections
Cheltenham are relegated if dont win tonight.
Colchester safety if win however if Doncaster win they move into play offs potential firecracker match
Barrow Guaranteed play off spot if win whilst Bradford nothing to play for
Must win game for Arsenal chelsea season is done nothing to play for except pride
Enter 30 Minutes if 0-0 1/2 Stake
Double stake 50 Minutes if still 0-0
Exit 70 if still 0-0 Green up on goals

OR SET FORGET entry over 1.5 goals at 1.50FREE TIPS.PNG

Grimsby v Swindon hit and traded out after the goal for just over 1 point profit. Another game that would have gone on to being 2 points win if i had let it run. I will be tracking that to see which would be the better return. Other 3 didn't hit the criteria at HT.

April so far + 4.84 points

@Tony-Hastie It depends what you're trying to do.

If you're looking for horses that have been held up in their last 3 races, you could just filter on a low pace rating in the current race.

What you're currently doing is checking the pace rating in the horse's last 3 races, which in turn is calculated from the last 3 races' pace letters.

So the pace rating in race 1 is calculating from the pace letters in races 2, 3 and 4. The pace rating in race 2 is calculated from the pace letter in races 3, 4 and 5, etc.

@Paul-Hill don't think we could even investigate that, as there is no strategy to work from. perhaps something in the betting rules was slightly different, impossible to know if it wasn't saved unfortunately.

if you are 100% sure create it again and see if the results align with the saved one, save both and let us know the names if there is an issue and we could investigate.

Sun 21/04/2024 Selections.
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@Martin I gave it a lot of time during Covid. It was ok but no fallout 4 or new vegas

@Fraser-cord

Works well any decent T20 league
Back opening team first exit 20% profit or 50% loss

been doing this for a while

@John-Folan Had this conversation with someone else who thought the same. I really like running in the rain though so couldnt see it myself. Im not a horse though I guess...

@Paul-Hill The outsider is the horse with the highest price.

2nd outsider is the horse with the 2nd highest price, etc. Basically the opposite of the favourites.

The outsider setting works in conjunction with the other betting rules, so for example if you set your entry time as 10 mins before the race, it's basically going to give you whichever horse had the highest price at 10 mins before the race.

@Patrick-Murphy Having looked at some of these, it looks like they're due to gaps in the prices. So basically short amounts of time where we weren't able to capture price snapshots, so your exits have either been missed completely or recorded later than they should have been.

These gaps can be due to latency or brief outages of the Betfair API and occasionally due to some issue our end, like the server issue I posted about recently here.

We regularly plug these gaps where we can using the Betfair historical data, and we've recently improved our audit scripts to better identify when they happen, so have been going through the whole database again to apply this improved method. It's a fairly big task but should be finished by the end of next week.

Sometimes when the issue is at Betfair's end, the data doesn't even appear in their historical data, which means we won't be able to plug the gaps at all. This will represent a fraction of a percent of trades, but I can understand that if you're backing at very high odds and large stakes, it could skew the profit figure.

Maybe we need a way of marking these in the database. We could also add some kind of "report and exclude" button to each individual trade in the results table, so that if you spot any of these yourselves, you can submit them for review and make them not appear in your backtesting results.

I'll finish the DB audit and then see what we can do to deal with any issues that still remain.

@Martin thanks alot appreciate it

@Simon-Hardy interesting, not tried this but keep me updated with how you get on!

@Martin Hi, thanks yes i think I’ll have to do this as you say to find out. I track the trades so in time should be able to.

I think getting out of a losing trade with the smallest loss could be something i focus more on rather than staying in for slightly greater wins. Kind of the same thing but the opposite.

So while the P&L isn't great, mentally another good week. Have decided for the football, I seem to be better at finding value bets so will follow that philosophy for now rather than using specific strategies.
I have also created a framework for my manual horse bets in the horse racing software and found what I do should be profitable over the long term which is reassuring even if it can't be automated (think it might be but will take more research).

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@Adam thanks very helpful

Thanks, Adam, that's really useful to know 👍 it has been bugging me.

@Barry-Dewar Why do you think that is?

Very much interested in this!